2019 Oscar Nominee Predictions

The 2019 awards season is now in full swing, and while there are plenty of movies gathering accolades and generating conversation, so much regarding this year’s Oscar race is still up in the air.  Many categories that a month ago seemed set have been thrown into confusion thanks to recent awards ceremonies like the Golden Globes, Critic’s Choice, and Producer’s Guild.  The nominees, which will be announced early tomorrow, January 22, are just as hard to pin down as the winners, but I’ve attempted to do so here in some of the main categories. Click the links to read my full review of each film.

Best Feature Film

NOTES: While the number of Best Picture nominees could range anywhere from five to ten, I’m sticking with nine, which has been the amount of nominees the last five out of seven years.  And as much as it pains me to stick “Bohemian Rhapsody” in there, it really seems like awards season is pointing that way so far, despite the fact that there are plenty of other, better movies that could fill that spot (“First Man,” “A Quiet Place,” “Paddington 2”—I digress). I will say there is a good chance that “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” will sneak in there instead, and that would be great.  A lot of this is also dependent on whether “Roma” is nominated in this category as well, or is only represented in the Best Foreign Language Film category.  Based on the number of awards its writer and director Alfonso Cuaron has racked up so far, I think it’s a safe bet that the drama (which really is the best film of 2018, just saying) will be the rare foreign language film that crosses over into the Best Picture category, but you never know.  I’m also betting that the Academy will finally nominate a superhero movie for Best Picture, and that that movie will be “Black Panther.”

CURRENT FRONTRUNNER: “Green Book”

Yalitza Aparicio in Alfonso Cuaron’s “Roma”

Best Director

  • Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”
  • Spike Lee, “Blackkklansman”
  • Peter Farrelly, “Green Book”
  • Adam McKay, “Vice”
  • Bradley Cooper, “A Star is Born”

NOTES: Honestly, the only reason Farrelly is in there is because I can’t see a world where “Green Book” is one of the Best Picture frontrunners but its director isn’t even nominated.  Barry Jenkins’ is a possibility for “If Beale Street Could Talk,” but it’s really dicey leaving out Yorgos Lanthimos for “The Favourite.”  I think, however, that voters are going to opt for McKay, whose film is also weird but in a different way, though it’s a close call—and “The Favourite” is, after all, the much better and generally more well-received film.

CURRENT FRONTRUNNER: Alfonso Cuaron

Best Actor

  • Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
  • Christian Bale, “Vice”
  • Bradley Cooper, “A Star is Born”
  • Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
  • John David Washington, “Blackkklansman”

NOTES: I’d say Malek, Bale, and Cooper are shoo-ins for this category, while the last two spots are a bit more up in the air, with Ethan Hawke in “First Reformed” being a potential upset.

CURRENT FRONTRUNNER: Christian Bale

Glenn Close as Joan Archer in “The Wife”

Best Actress

  • Lady Gaga, “A Star is Born”
  • Glenn Close, “The Wife
  • Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  • Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
  • Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”

NOTES: I know that Aparicio’s inclusion is far from a sure thing.  But she is so great in “Roma” and I want this so badly for her.  Another possible nominee could be Toni Collette, who has already been nominated for other awards for her performance in the controversial “Hereditary.”

CURRENT FRONTRUNNER: Glenn Close, “The Wife”

Best Supporting Actress

  • Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
  • Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
  • Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk?”
  • Amy Adams, “Vice”
  • Claire Foy, “First Man

CURRENT FRONTRUNNER: Regina King

Mahershala Ali with Viggo Mortensen in “Green Book”

Best Supporting Actor

  • Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
  • Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
  • Timothee Chalamet, “Beautiful Boy”
  • Sam Elliott, “A Star is Born”
  • Adam Driver, “Blackkklansman”

NOTES: Adam Driver is the wild card here, and I’ve only included him because he’s been nominated in this category already.  But don’t count out Sam Rockwell’s George W. Bush in “Vice.”

CURRENT FRONTRUNNER: Mahershala Ali

Best Original Screenplay

  • “The Favourite”
  • “Roma”
  • “Green Book”
  • “Vice”
  • Eighth Grade

CURRENT FRONTRUNNER: “Green Book” (this is likely going to change.  “Green Book” may have surprised in this category at the Golden Globes, but I don’t see it repeating that success at the Oscars).

Kiki Layne and Stephan James in “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • “If Beale Street Could Talk”
  • “Leave No Trace”
  • “A Star is Born”
  • “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
  • “Blackkklansman”

CURRENT FRONTRUNNER: “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Who do you think will receive Oscar nominations this year?  Leave a comment and let me know!

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